Ukusukela ngo-2021 ukuya kowama-2022, bekukho ukukhula okukhawulezayo kwimakethi ye-semiconductor yehlabathi ngenxa yokuvela kweemfuno ezizodwa ezibangelwa kukuqhambuka kwe-COVID-19.Nangona kunjalo, njengoko iimfuno ezikhethekileyo ezibangelwe ngubhubhani we-COVID-19 zaphela kwisiqingatha sokugqibela sika-2022 kwaye zangena kolona qoqosho luqatha kwimbali ngo-2023.
Nangona kunjalo, ukudodobala okukhulu koqoqosho kulindeleke ukuba kube phantsi ngo-2023, kunye nokubuyiselwa okubanzi kulindeleke kulo nyaka (2024).
Ngapha koko, ukujonga ukuhanjiswa kwekota ye-semiconductor kwiindidi ezahlukeneyo, i-Logic sele igqithile incopho ebangelwe ziimfuno ezikhethekileyo ze-COVID-19 kwaye yamisela imbali entsha.Ukongeza, i-Mos Micro kunye ne-Analog kusenokwenzeka ukuba zifikelele kwimbali ephezulu ngo-2024, njengoko ukwehla okubangelwe kukuphela kweemfuno ezizodwa ze-COVID-19 kungabalulekanga (Umfanekiso 1).
Phakathi kwabo, iMemori ye-Mos ifumene ukwehla okukhulu, emva koko yaphuma kwikota yokuqala (Q1) ye-2023 kwaye yaqala uhambo lwayo oluya ekubuyiseleni.Nangona kunjalo, kubonakala ngathi kusafuna ixesha elininzi ukufikelela incopho yeemfuno ezizodwa ze-COVID-19.Nangona kunjalo, ukuba iMemori ye-Mos idlula incopho yayo, ukuthunyelwa kwe-semiconductor iyonke ngokungathandabuzekiyo iya kubetha kwimbali entsha ephezulu.Ngokombono wam, ukuba oku kwenzeka, kunokuthiwa imarike ye-semiconductor ibuyiselwe ngokupheleleyo.
Nangona kunjalo, ukujonga utshintsho kwiimpahla ze-semiconductor, kuyacaca ukuba le mbono iphosakele.Oku kungenxa yokuba, ngelixa ukuthunyelwa kwe-Mos Memory, ebuyela kwimeko yesiqhelo, iye yachacha, ubukhulu becala, ukuthunyelwa kwe-Logic, efikelele kumazinga aphezulu embali, kusekumanqanaba asezantsi kakhulu.Ngamanye amazwi, ukuvuselela ngokwenene imakethi ye-semiconductor yehlabathi, ukuthunyelwa kweeyunithi zengqiqo kufuneka kunyuke kakhulu.
Ke ngoko, kweli nqaku, siya kuhlalutya ukuthunyelwa kwe-semiconductor kunye nobungakanani beentlobo ezahlukeneyo ze-semiconductors kunye ne-semiconductors iyonke.Okulandelayo, siya kusebenzisa umahluko phakathi kokuthunyelwa kwe-Logic kunye nokuthunyelwa njengomzekelo ukubonisa indlela ukuthunyelwa kwee-wafers ze-TSMC kusemva ngaphandle kokuchacha ngokukhawuleza.Ukongeza, siya kuqikelela ukuba kutheni lo mahluko ukhona kwaye sicebise ukuba ukubuyiswa ngokupheleleyo kwemarike ye-semiconductor yehlabathi kunokulibaziseka kude kube ngu-2025.
Ukuqukumbela, inkangeleko yangoku yokubuyisela imarike ye-semiconductor "yinkohliso" ebangelwa yi-NVIDIA's GPUs, enamaxabiso aphezulu kakhulu.Ke ngoko, kubonakala ngathi imakethi ye-semiconductor ayizukubuyela ngokupheleleyo de iziseko ezifana ne-TSMC zifikelele kumthamo opheleleyo kunye nokuhanjiswa kwe-Logic kufikelela kwimbali entsha.
Ixabiso lokuThunyelwa kweSemiconductor kunye noVavanyo loMyinge
Umzobo wesi-2 ubonisa iintsingiselo zexabiso lokuthunyelwa kunye nobuninzi kwiindidi ezahlukeneyo ze-semiconductors kunye nemarike yonke ye-semiconductor.
Umthamo wokuthumela we-Mos Micro unyuke kwikota yesine ka-2021, wehla kwikota yokuqala ka-2023, kwaye waqala ukuchacha.Kwelinye icala, umyinge wothutho awubonisi tshintsho lubalulekileyo, uhlala uphantse watyatyadula ukusuka kwikota yesithathu ukuya kweyesine ka-2023, ngokuncipha okuncinci.
Ixabiso lokuthunyelwa kweMos Memory laqala ukwehla kakhulu ukusuka kwikota yesibini ka-2022, lehla kwikota yokuqala ka-2023, laza laqalisa ukunyuka, kodwa laphinda lachacha laya kutsho kumyinge we-40% yexabiso eliphezulu kwikota yesine yalo nyaka.Ngeli xesha, ubungakanani bothutho bubuyele malunga ne-94% yenqanaba eliphezulu.Ngamanye amazwi, izinga lokusetyenziswa kwefektri yabavelisi beenkumbulo lithathwa njengokusondela kumthamo opheleleyo.Umbuzo kukuba ingakanani i-DRAM kunye ne-NAND amaxabiso e-flash aya kunyuka.
Umyinge wokuthuthwa kweLogic unyuke wanda kwikota yesibini ka-2022, wehla kwikota yokuqala ka-2023, emva koko waphinda waphindaphindeka, wafikelela kwimbali entsha ephezulu kwikota yesine yalo nyaka.Kwelinye icala, ixabiso lokuthunyelwa kwempahla liye lenyuka kwikota yesibini ka-2022, emva koko lehla laya kutsho kwi-65% yexabiso lencopho kwikota yesithathu ka-2023 kwaye lahlala lithe tyaba kwikota yesine yalo nyaka.Ngamanye amazwi, kukho ukungafani okubalulekileyo phakathi kokuziphatha kwexabiso lokuthunyelwa kunye nobuninzi bokuthunyelwa kwi-Logic.
Ubuninzi bokuthunyelwa kwe-analog bunyuke kwikota yesithathu ka-2022, buphantsi kwikota yesibini ka-2023, kwaye buhlala buzinzile.Kwelinye icala, emva kokunyuka kwikota yesithathu ka-2022, ixabiso lokuthunyelwa liqhubekile nokuhla de kwayikota yesine ka-2023.
Okokugqibela, ixabiso lokuthuthwa kwe-semiconductor lilonke lehle kakhulu ukusuka kwikota yesibini ka-2022, liye lehla kwikota yokuqala ka-2023, laza laqalisa ukunyuka, labuyela kwi-96% yexabiso eliphezulu kwikota yesine yalo nyaka.Kwelinye icala, umyinge wokuthunyelwa kwempahla ubuye wehla kakhulu ukusuka kwikota yesibini ka-2022, wehla kwikota yokuqala ka-2023, kodwa ukusukela oko uhleli uthe tyaba, malunga ne-75% yexabiso eliphakamileyo.
Ukusuka apha ngasentla, kubonakala ngathi i-Mos Memory yeyona ndawo yengxaki ukuba kujongwe ubungakanani bothutho kuphela, njengoko iye yaphinda yachacha ukuya kuthi ga kwi-40% yexabiso eliyincopho.Nangona kunjalo, xa sithatha imbono ebanzi, sinokubona ukuba i-Logic yeyona nto ixhalabisayo, njengoko ngaphandle kokufikelela kwimbali ephezulu kubungakanani bokuthunyelwa, ixabiso lokuthumela liye lahla malunga ne-65% yexabiso eliphezulu.Impembelelo yalo mahluko phakathi kobuninzi bothutho lwe-Logic kunye nexabiso libonakala ngathi linabela kuyo yonke intsimi ye-semiconductor.
Ngamafutshane, ukubuyiswa kwakhona kwemarike ye-semiconductor yehlabathi kuxhomekeke ekubeni amaxabiso e-Mos Memory anda kwaye nokuba umyinge wokuthuthwa kweeyunithi ze-Logic zonyuka kakhulu.Ngamaxabiso e-DRAM kunye ne-NAND eqhubeka enyuka, owona mcimbi mkhulu uya kuba kukunyusa ukuthunyelwa kweeyunithi ze-Logic.
Okulandelayo, siza kuchaza indlela yokuziphatha kwe-TSMC yobuninzi bokuthunyelwa kunye nokuthunyelwa kwe-wafer ukubonisa ngokuthe ngqo umahluko phakathi kobungakanani bothutho be-Logic kunye nokuthunyelwa kwe-wafer.
Ixabiso leKota lokuThunyelwa kwe-TSMC kunye noThunyelo lweWafer
Umzobo wesi-3 ubonisa ukophuka kwentengiso ye-TSMC ngeendawo kunye nendlela yokuthengisa ye-7nm nangaphezulu kweenkqubo kwikota yesine ka-2023.
I-TSMC ibeka i-7nm nangaphaya njengeendawo eziphambili.Kwikota yesine ka-2023, i-7nm yabalelwa kwi-17%, i-5nm i-35%, kunye ne-3nm ye-15%, iyonke i-67% yeendawo eziphambili.Ukongeza, intengiso yekota yeendawo eziphambili zokuthengisa ziye zanda ukusukela kwikota yokuqala ka-2021, ziye zehla kanye kwikota yesine ka-2022, kodwa zehla kwaye zaqala ukunyuka kwakhona kwikota yesibini ka-2023, zafikelela kwinqanaba elitsha lembali. kwikota yesine kulo nyaka.
Ngamanye amagama, ukuba ujonga ukusebenza kwentengiso yeendawo eziphambili, i-TSMC iqhuba kakuhle.Ke, kuthekani malunga nengeniso yokuthengisa yekota ye-TSMC iyonke kunye nokuthunyelwa kwe-wafer (Umfanekiso 4)?
Itshathi yexabiso lothutho lwekota lwe-TSMC kunye nokuthunyelwa kwe-wafer kuhambelana noko.Yenyuka ngexesha le-bubble ye-IT ye-2000, yehla emva kokutshatyalaliswa kwe-Lehman ka-2008, kwaye yaqhubeka iyancipha emva kokuqhuma kwememori ye-2018.
Nangona kunjalo, indlela yokuziphatha emva kwencopho yemfuno ekhethekileyo kwikota yesithathu ka-2022 iyahluka.Ixabiso lokuthumela liye lafikelela kwi-20.2 yeebhiliyoni zeedola, emva koko lehla kakhulu kodwa laqala ukuphinda libuyele emva kokuphuma kwi-15.7 yeebhiliyoni zeedola kwikota yesibini ka-2023, lafikelela kwi-19.7 yeebhiliyoni zeedola kwikota yesine yalo nyaka, eyi-97% yexabiso eliphezulu.
Kwelinye icala, ukuthunyelwa kwe-wafer ngekota kunyuke kwi-3.97 yezigidi zeewafers kwikota yesithathu ka-2022, emva koko yehla, yaya kutsho kwi-2.92 yezigidi zeewafers kwikota yesibini ka-2023, kodwa yahlala ithe tyaba emva koko.Nakwikota yesine yalo nyaka, nangona inani leewafers ezithunyelweyo lehlile kakhulu ukusuka kwincopho, lisahleli kwi-2.96 yezigidi zeewafers, ukuncipha kwama-wafers angaphezu kwesigidi ukusuka phezulu.
Eyona semiconductor eqhelekileyo eveliswe yi-TSMC yiLogic.Ukuthengiswa kwe-TSMC yekota yesine ye-2023 yeendawo eziphambili zafikelela kwimbali entsha ephezulu, kunye nentengiso iyonke ibuyele kwi-97% yencopho yembali.Nangona kunjalo, ukuthunyelwa kwe-wafer ngekota kwakusengaphezulu kwesigidi esi-1 se-wafers ngaphantsi kwexesha eliphakamileyo.Ngamanye amazwi, ireyithi yokusetyenziswa kwefektri ye-TSMC iyonke imalunga nama-75%.
Ngokubhekiselele kwimakethi ye-semiconductor yehlabathi ngokubanzi, ukuthunyelwa kwe-Logic kwehlile ukuya malunga ne-65% yencopho ngexesha le-COVID-19 yemfuno ekhethekileyo.Ngokungaguqukiyo, ukuthunyelwa kwe-wafer yekota ye-TSMC yehle ngaphezulu kwesigidi se-wafers ukusuka kwincopho, kunye nezinga lokusetyenziswa kwefektri liqikelelwa malunga ne-75%.
Ukujonga phambili, ukuze imakethi ye-semiconductor yehlabathi iphinde ibuyele kwakhona, ukuthunyelwa kwe-Logic kufuneka kunyuke kakhulu, kwaye ukufezekisa oku, izinga lokusetyenziswa kweziseko ezikhokelwa yi-TSMC kufuneka lisondele kumthamo opheleleyo.
Kuya kwenzeka nini kanye kanye oku?
Ukuqikelela ukuSetyenziswa kweeReyithi zeZiseko eziKhulu
Nge-14 kaDisemba, i-2023, inkampani yophando yaseTaiwan i-TrendForce yabamba isemina "yeNgcaciso yoLwabiwo lwezoShishino" kwiHotele yaseGrand Nikko Tokyo Bay Maihama Washington.Kwisemina, umhlalutyi we-TrendForce uJoanna Chiao uxoxe nge-"TSMC's Global Strategy kunye ne-Semiconductor Foundry Market Outlook ye-2024."Phakathi kwezinye izihloko, uJoanna Chiao wathetha malunga nokuqikelela amaxabiso okusetyenziswa kwesiseko (Figure
Kuya kwanda nini ukuthunyelwa kwe-Logic?
Ngaba le 8% ibalulekile okanye ayibalulekanga?Nangona lo ngumbuzo ochuliweyo, nangowama-2026, i-92% eseleyo yeewafers isaza kutyiwa zii-non-AI semiconductor chips.Uninzi lwezi ziya kuba yi-logic chips.Ke ngoko, ukuze ukuthunyelwa kwe-Logic kunyuke kunye neziseko eziphambili ezikhokelwa yi-TSMC ukufikelela kwisikhundla esipheleleyo, imfuno yezixhobo zombane ezinjengee-smartphones, iiPC kunye neeseva kufuneka zonyuke.
Isishwankathelo, ngokusekwe kwimeko yangoku, andikholelwa ukuba i-AI semiconductors njenge-GPU ye-NVIDIA iya kuba ngumsindisi wethu.Ke ngoko, kukholelwa ukuba imakethi ye-semiconductor yehlabathi ayizukubuyela ngokupheleleyo kude kube ngu-2024, okanye ilityaziswe kude kube ngu-2025.
Nangona kunjalo, kukho enye into (enethemba) enokuthi ibhukuqe le ngqikelelo.
Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, zonke ii-semiconductors ze-AI ezichaziweyo bezibhekiselele kwii-semiconductors ezifakwe kwiiseva.Nangona kunjalo, ngoku kukho umkhwa wokwenza ukusetyenzwa kwe-AI kwiitheminali (imiphetho) ezinje ngeekhompyuter zobuqu, ii-smartphones, kunye neetafile.
Imizekelo ibandakanya i-Intel ecetywayo ye-AI PC kunye neenzame ze-Samsung zokwenza ii-smartphones ze-AI.Ukuba ezi ziyaziwa (ngamanye amagama, ukuba ukutsha kwenzeka), imarike ye-AI semiconductor iya kwanda ngokukhawuleza.Ngapha koko, inkampani yophando yase-US i-Gartner iqikelela ukuba ekupheleni kuka-2024, ukuthunyelwa kwee-smartphones ze-AI kuya kufikelela kwiiyunithi zezigidi ezingama-240, kwaye ukuthunyelwa kweePC ze-AI kuya kufikelela kwi-54.5 yezigidi zeeyunithi (ngokubhekiselele kuphela).Ukuba olu qikelelo luyenzeka, imfuno ye-Cutting-Edge Logic iya kunyuka (ngokwexabiso lokuthunyelwa kunye nobungakanani), kwaye amaxabiso okusetyenziswa kweziseko ezifana ne-TSMC aya kunyuka.Ukongeza, imfuno yeeMPUs kunye neememori ziya kukhula ngokukhawuleza.
Ngamanye amazwi, xa ihlabathi elinjalo lifika, i-semiconductors ye-AI kufuneka ibe ngumsindisi wangempela.Ke ngoko, ukusukela ngoku ukuya phambili, ndingathanda ukugxila kwiindlela zomda we-AI semiconductors.
Ixesha lokuposa: Apr-08-2024