Ukususela ngo-2021 ukuya ku-2022, bekukho ukukhula okukhawulezileyo kwimarike yehlabathi ye-semiconductor ngenxa yokuvela kweemfuno ezikhethekileyo ezibangelwe kukuqhambuka kwe-COVID-19. Nangona kunjalo, njengoko iimfuno ezikhethekileyo ezibangelwe ngubhubhane we-COVID-19 zaphela kwisiqingatha sokugqibela sika-2022 zaza zangena kwenye yezona meko zinzima kwimbali ngo-2023.
Nangona kunjalo, kulindeleke ukuba i-Great Recession ifikelele esiphelweni ngo-2023, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba imeko ibuyele esiqhelweni kulo nyaka (2024).
Enyanisweni, xa sijonga ukuthunyelwa kwe-semiconductor yekota kwiintlobo ngeentlobo, iLogic sele idlule kwincopho ebangelwe ziimfuno ezikhethekileyo ze-COVID-19 kwaye ibeke inqanaba elitsha lembali. Ukongeza, iMos Micro kunye ne-Analog kusenokwenzeka ukuba zifikelele kwinqanaba eliphezulu lembali ngo-2024, njengoko ukwehla okubangelwe kukuphela kweemfuno ezikhethekileyo ze-COVID-19 kungabalulekile (Umfanekiso 1).
Phakathi kwazo, iMos Memory ifumene ukwehla okukhulu, yaza yaphela kwikota yokuqala (Q1) ka-2023 yaza yaqala uhambo lwayo lokubuyela kwimeko yesiqhelo. Nangona kunjalo, kubonakala ngathi kusafuneka ixesha elide ukufikelela kwincopho yeemfuno ezikhethekileyo ze-COVID-19. Nangona kunjalo, ukuba iMos Memory idlula incopho yayo, ukuthunyelwa okupheleleyo kwe-semiconductor ngokuqinisekileyo kuya kufikelela kwinqanaba elitsha lembali. Ngokoluvo lwam, ukuba oku kuyenzeka, kunokuthiwa imakethi ye-semiconductor ibuyele kwimeko yesiqhelo ngokupheleleyo.
Nangona kunjalo, xa sijonga utshintsho kwiimpahla ze-semiconductor, kuyacaca ukuba olu luvo aluchanekanga. Oku kungenxa yokuba, nangona iimpahla ze-Mos Memory, ezisaphinda zibuye, iimpahla ze-Logic, ezifikelele kwizinga eliphezulu kwimbali, zisekwizinga eliphantsi kakhulu. Ngamanye amazwi, ukuze kuvuseleleke ngokwenene imakethi yehlabathi ye-semiconductor, iimpahla ze-logic kufuneka zinyuke kakhulu.
Ke ngoko, kweli nqaku, siza kuhlalutya ukuthunyelwa kwee-semiconductor kunye nobungakanani beentlobo ngeentlobo zee-semiconductors kunye nee-total semiconductors. Okulandelayo, siza kusebenzisa umahluko phakathi kokuthunyelwa kweLogic kunye nokuthunyelwa njengomzekelo ukubonisa indlela ukuthunyelwa kwee-wafers ze-TSMC ezishiyeka ngayo nangona zibuyela umva ngokukhawuleza. Ukongeza, siza kuqikelela ukuba kutheni lo mahluko ukho kwaye sicebise ukuba ukubuyiselwa ngokupheleleyo kwimarike ye-semiconductor yehlabathi kunokulibaziseka kude kube ngu-2025.
Ukuqukumbela, ukubonakala kwangoku kokubuyiselwa kwemarike ye-semiconductor "yinkohliso" ebangelwa yi-GPU ze-NVIDIA, ezinamaxabiso aphezulu kakhulu. Ke ngoko, kubonakala ngathi imakethi ye-semiconductor ayizukubuyela ngokupheleleyo de kube ii-founders ezifana ne-TSMC zifikelele kumthamo opheleleyo kwaye ukuthunyelwa kweLogic kufikelela kwinqanaba elitsha lembali.
Uhlalutyo lwexabiso lokuthunyelwa kwe-semiconductor kunye nobungakanani
Umfanekiso 2 ubonisa iindlela ezisetyenziswayo xa kuthunyelwa izinto ngexabiso kunye nobungakanani kwiintlobo ngeentlobo zee-semiconductors kunye nemarike yonke yee-semiconductors.
Umthamo wokuthunyelwa kweMos Micro ufikelele kwinqanaba eliphezulu kwikota yesine ka-2021, wehla kakhulu kwikota yokuqala ka-2023, waza waqala ukubuyela kwimeko yesiqhelo. Kwelinye icala, ubungakanani bokuthunyelwa abuzange bubonise tshintsho lubalulekileyo, buhlala buphantse bube kumgangatho othe tyaba ukusuka kwikota yesithathu ukuya kweyesine ka-2023, kunye nokwehla okuncinci.
Ixabiso lokuthunyelwa kweMos Memory liqale ukwehla kakhulu kwikota yesibini ka-2022, lafikelela kwinqanaba eliphantsi kwikota yokuqala ka-2023, laza laqala ukunyuka, kodwa labuyela kwi-40% yexabiso eliphezulu kwikota yesine yonyaka ofanayo. Okwangoku, ubungakanani bokuthunyelwa bubuyele kwi-94% yenqanaba eliphezulu. Ngamanye amazwi, izinga lokusetyenziswa kwefektri yabavelisi beememori lithathwa njengelifikelela kumthamo opheleleyo. Umbuzo kukuba amaxabiso e-DRAM kunye ne-NAND flash aza kunyuka kangakanani.
Ubungakanani bokuthunyelwa kweLogic bufikelele kwinqanaba eliphezulu kwikota yesibini ka-2022, bufikelele kwinqanaba lesibini kwikota yokuqala ka-2023, emva koko buphinde babuya, bufikelela kwinqanaba eliphezulu lembali kwikota yesine yonyaka ofanayo. Kwelinye icala, ixabiso lokuthunyelwa kwempahla lifikelele kwinqanaba eliphezulu kwikota yesibini ka-2022, emva koko lehla laya kuthi ga kwi-65% yexabiso eliphezulu kwikota yesithathu ka-2023 laza lahlala lithe tyaba kwikota yesine yonyaka ofanayo. Ngamanye amazwi, kukho umahluko omkhulu phakathi kwendlela yokuziphatha kwexabiso lokuthunyelwa kwempahla kunye nobungakanani bokuthunyelwa kwempahla kwiLogic.
Ubungakanani bokuthunyelwa kwe-analog bufikelele kwinqanaba eliphezulu kwikota yesithathu ka-2022, bufikelele kwinqanaba lesibini kwikota yesibini ka-2023, kwaye ukususela ngoko buhlala buzinzile. Kwelinye icala, emva kokufika kwinqanaba eliphezulu kwikota yesithathu ka-2022, ixabiso lokuthunyelwa liqhubekile nokuhla ukuya kuthi ga kwikota yesine ka-2023.
Okokugqibela, ixabiso lokuthunyelwa kwe-semiconductor lilonke lehle kakhulu ukusuka kwikota yesibini ka-2022, lehla kakhulu kwikota yokuqala ka-2023, laza laqala ukunyuka, labuyela kwi-96% yexabiso eliphezulu kwikota yesine yonyaka ofanayo. Kwelinye icala, inani lokuthunyelwa nalo lehle kakhulu ukusuka kwikota yesibini ka-2022, lehla kakhulu kwikota yokuqala ka-2023, kodwa ukususela ngoko lihlale lithe tyaba, malunga ne-75% yexabiso eliphezulu.
Ukusuka koku kungasentla, kubonakala ngathi iMos Memory yindawo yengxaki ukuba kuphela ubungakanani bokuthunyelwa obuqwalaselwe, njengoko ibuyele kwi-40% kuphela yexabiso eliphezulu. Nangona kunjalo, xa sijonga ngokubanzi, sinokubona ukuba iLogic yingxaki enkulu, njengoko nangona ifikelele kwinqanaba eliphezulu lembali kubungakanani bokuthunyelwa, ixabiso lokuthunyelwa liye lahlala limalunga ne-65% yexabiso eliphezulu. Impembelelo yalo mahluko phakathi kobungakanani bokuthunyelwa kweLogic kunye nexabiso ibonakala ngathi ifikelela kuyo yonke intsimi ye-semiconductor.
Ngamafutshane, ukubuyiselwa kwemarike ye-semiconductor yehlabathi kuxhomekeke ekubeni amaxabiso eMos Memory ayanda na kwaye ubungakanani bokuthunyelwa kweeyunithi zeLogic buyanda kakhulu na. Njengoko amaxabiso e-DRAM kunye ne-NAND enyuka rhoqo, ingxaki enkulu iya kuba kukwandisa ubungakanani bokuthunyelwa kweeyunithi zeLogic.
Okulandelayo, siza kuchaza indlela ezisebenza ngayo izinto ezithunyelwa yiTSMC kunye neempahla ezithunyelwa yiwafer ukuze sibonise umahluko phakathi kwezinto ezithunyelwa yiLogic kunye neempahla ezithunyelwa yiwafer.
Ixabiso lokuthunyelwa kwekota yeTSMC kunye nokuthunyelwa kweWafer
Umfanekiso 3 ubonisa uhlalutyo lwentengiso lwe-TSMC ngokwe-node kunye nomkhwa wentengiso weenkqubo ze-7nm nangaphezulu kwikota yesine ka-2023.
I-TSMC ibeka i-7nm nangaphezulu njengeendawo eziphucukileyo. Kwikota yesine ka-2023, i-7nm ibingu-17%, i-5nm ibe yi-35%, kunye ne-3nm ibe yi-15%, iyonke ibe yi-67% yeeendawo eziphucukileyo. Ukongeza, intengiso yekota yeeendawo eziphucukileyo ibisanda ukusukela kwikota yokuqala ka-2021, ihlangabezane nokwehla kanye kwikota yesine ka-2022, kodwa yehla yaza yaqala ukunyuka kwakhona kwikota yesibini ka-2023, yafikelela kwinqanaba eliphezulu lembali kwikota yesine yaloo nyaka.
Ngamanye amazwi, ukuba ujonga ukusebenza kwentengiso yee-nodes eziphambili, i-TSMC isebenza kakuhle. Ngoko ke, kuthekani ngengeniso yentengiso iyonke yekota ye-TSMC kunye nokuthunyelwa kwe-wafer (Umfanekiso 4)?
Itshati yexabiso lokuthunyelwa kwe-TSMC ngekota kunye nokuthunyelwa kwe-wafer kuyahambelana. Ifikelele kwinqanaba eliphezulu ngexesha lebhamuza ye-IT ka-2000, yehla emva kokutshatyalaliswa kweLehman ka-2008, yaza yaqhubeka nokuhla emva kokuqhuma kwebhamuza yememori ka-2018.
Nangona kunjalo, indlela yokuziphatha emva kwencopho yemfuno ekhethekileyo kwikota yesithathu ka-2022 yahlukile. Ixabiso lokuthunyelwa kwempahla lifikelele kwi-$20.2 yeebhiliyoni, emva koko lehla kakhulu kodwa laqala ukuphinda libuyele umva emva kokwehla kwi-$15.7 yeebhiliyoni kwikota yesibini ka-2023, lafikelela kwi-$19.7 yeebhiliyoni kwikota yesine yalo nyaka, eliyi-97% yexabiso eliphezulu.
Kwelinye icala, ukuthunyelwa kwe-wafer yekota nganye kufikelele kwi-wafers ezizigidi ezi-3.97 kwikota yesithathu ka-2022, emva koko kwehla, kwaya kwi-wafers ezizigidi ezi-2.92 kwikota yesibini ka-2023, kodwa kwahlala kungashukumi emva koko. Kwanakwikota yesine yonyaka ofanayo, nangona inani lee-wafers ezithunyelwayo lehla kakhulu ukusuka kwincopho, lisahleli kwi-wafers ezizigidi ezi-2.96, ukwehla kwe-wafers ezingaphezu kwesigidi ukusuka kwincopho.
Eyona semiconductor ixhaphakileyo eveliswa yiTSMC yiLogic. Intengiso ye-TSMC yekota yesine ka-2023 yee-nodes eziphambili ifikelele kwinqanaba eliphezulu lembali, kwaye intengiso iyonke ibuyela kwi-97% yencopho yembali. Nangona kunjalo, ukuthunyelwa kwe-wafer yekota nganye bekusengaphezulu kwe-1 yezigidi zee-wafers ngaphantsi kunexesha lencopho. Ngamanye amazwi, izinga lokusetyenziswa kwefektri iyonke yeTSMC limalunga ne-75% kuphela.
Ngokuphathelele imakethi yehlabathi jikelele ye-semiconductor iyonke, ukuthunyelwa kweLogic kwehle ukuya kuthi ga kwi-65% yencopho ngexesha lemfuno ekhethekileyo ye-COVID-19. Ngokuthe ngcembe, ukuthunyelwa kwe-wafer yekota ye-TSMC kwehle ngaphezulu kwe-1 yezigidi zee-wafers ukusuka kwincopho, kunye nezinga lokusetyenziswa kwefektri eliqikelelwa ukuba limalunga ne-75%.
Ukujonga phambili, ukuze imakethi yehlabathi ye-semiconductor ibuyele kwimeko yesiqhelo, ukuthunyelwa kweLogic kufuneka kunyuke kakhulu, kwaye ukufezekisa oku, izinga lokusetyenziswa kweendawo zokusekwa ezikhokelwa yi-TSMC kufuneka lifikelele kumthamo opheleleyo.
Ngoko ke, kuza kwenzeka nini kanye kanye oku?
Ukuqikelela Amanani Okusetyenziswa Kweenkampani Ezinkulu Eziyisiseko
Ngomhla we-14 kweyoMnga ngo-2023, inkampani yophando yaseTaiwan iTrendForce ibambe iseminari ethi "Industry Focus Information" kwiGrand Nikko Tokyo Bay Maihama Washington Hotel. Kwiseminari, umhlalutyi weTrendForce uJoanna Chiao uxoxe "ngeSicwangciso seHlabathi seTSMC kunye neMbono yeMarike yeSemiconductor Foundry ka-2024." Phakathi kwezinye izihloko, uJoanna Chiao uthethe ngokuqikelela amazinga okusetyenziswa kwe-foundry (Umfanekiso
Ukuthunyelwa kweLogic kuza kunyuka nini?
Ingaba oku ku-8% kubalulekile okanye akubalulekanga? Nangona lo ngumbuzo ongaqondakaliyo, nokuba ngowama-2026, ama-92% aseleyo ee-wafers aza kutyiwa ziitships ze-semiconductor ezingezizo ze-AI. Uninzi lwazo luya kuba ziitships zeLogic. Ke ngoko, ukuze ukuthunyelwa kweLogic kwande kwaye iindawo ezinkulu ezikhokelwa yiTSMC zifikelele kumthamo opheleleyo, imfuno yezixhobo ze-elektroniki ezifana nee-smartphones, iiPC, kunye neeseva kufuneka inyuke.
Ngamafutshane, ngokusekwe kwimeko yangoku, andikholelwa ukuba ii-semiconductors ze-AI ezifana nee-GPU ze-NVIDIA ziya kuba ngumsindisi wethu. Ke ngoko, kukholelwa ukuba imakethi ye-semiconductor yehlabathi ayizukubuyela ngokupheleleyo kude kube ngu-2024, okanye ilibaleke kude kube ngu-2025.
Nangona kunjalo, kukho elinye ithuba (eliqinisekileyo) elinokuguqula olu qikelelo.
Okwangoku, zonke ii-semiconductors ze-AI ezichaziweyo bezibhekisa kwii-semiconductors ezifakwe kwiiseva. Nangona kunjalo, ngoku kukho umkhwa wokwenza ukucubungula i-AI kwiiterminals (edges) ezifana neekhompyutha zomntu, ii-smartphones, kunye neetablets.
Imizekelo ibandakanya i-Intel's AI PC ecetywayo kunye nemizamo yeSamsung yokwenza ii-smartphones ze-AI. Ukuba ezi ziyathandwa (ngamanye amazwi, ukuba kuvela uphuhliso), imakethi ye-AI semiconductor iya kwanda ngokukhawuleza. Enyanisweni, inkampani yophando yase-US iGartner iqikelela ukuba ekupheleni kuka-2024, ukuthunyelwa kwee-smartphones ze-AI kuya kufikelela kwiiyunithi ezingama-240 ezigidi, kwaye ukuthunyelwa kwee-PC ze-AI kuya kufikelela kwiiyunithi ezingama-54.5 ezigidi (ngokwereferensi kuphela). Ukuba olu qikelelo luyazaliseka, imfuno yeLogic yanamhlanje iya kwanda (ngokwexabiso lokuthunyelwa kunye nobungakanani), kwaye amazinga okusetyenziswa kwee-foundries ezifana ne-TSMC aya kwanda. Ukongeza, imfuno yee-MPU kunye nememori nayo ngokuqinisekileyo iya kukhula ngokukhawuleza.
Ngamanye amazwi, xa kufika ihlabathi elinjalo, ii-semiconductors ze-AI kufuneka zibe ngumsindisi wokwenene. Ke ngoko, ukususela ngoku, ndingathanda ukugxila kwiindlela ezisetyenziswa ngayo ii-semiconductors ze-AI ezikwi-edge.
Ixesha lokuthumela: Epreli-08-2024